Winter 2014/15 Forecast
A rare view of snow on the Esplanade and beach at Sidmouth on Christmas Day, 2010.

This long-term guess-cast for the winter of 2014/15 was created on Friday 5th December 2014 concerning the Otter Valley and surrounded low-lying hinterland areas of south-east Devon such as Exmouth, Honiton and over to Axminster in the far east.

Well, here it is! The Otter Valley Weather's delve into fantasy forecasting.....

I expect this winter to be colder and drier than last winter. Now, I can say that with moderate confidence because last winter was very wet and rather mild. But on the whole I do not expect a cold winter but one that will probably end up average or slightly above regarding temperature and rainfall. I do expect there may be a few blocking scenarios leading to outbreaks of cold, Continental air and even a flake or two of snow, though probably nothing of real significance and relatively short-lived.

    Forecast Actual
December:

A mixed month that starts off cold(ish) and becomes milder after the first week. The potential for wet and windy weather increases especially from the 3rd week onwards.

Mean Minimum = 4C (+0.6C)
Mean Maximum = 11C (+1.1C)
Total Monthly Sun = 85 hrs (100%)
Total Monthly Rain = 80 mm (85%)
Mean Minimum = 3.0C (-0.3C)
Mean Maximum = 10.3C (+1.0C)
Total Monthly Sun = 101 hrs (123%)
Total Monthly Rain = 36.5 mm (43%)
January:
 

With a strong Jet Stream I expect mild, wet unsettled weather to dominate though short-lived, anticyclonic or blocking situations could occur and may become more frequent as the month progresses. The latter could see brief incursions of cold Arctic and Continental air.

Mean Minimum = 3C (+0.0C)
Mean Maximum = 10C (+0.5C)
Total Monthly Sun = 85 hrs (120%)
Total Monthly Rain = 100 mm (120%)
Mean Minimum = 3.2C (+0.1C)
Mean Maximum = 10.1C (+1.2C)
Total Monthly Sun = 105 hrs (158%)
Total Monthly Rain = 73 mm (89%)
February:

The potential for blocking situations to arrive heralding drier, calmer but colder weather may increase. This could bring the first below average month for temperature since August 2014. If there is any snow this winter then it probably will happen during this month.

Mean Minimum = 2C (-1.0C)
Mean Maximum = 9C (+0.0C)
Total Monthly Sun = 90 hrs (105%)
Total Monthly Rain = 60 mm (100%)
Mean Minimum = 1.6C (-1.1C)
Mean Maximum = 9.2C (+0.4C)
Total Monthly Sun = 109 hrs (134%)
Total Monthly Rain = 56 mm (91%)
The Otter Valley Spring Fantasy-Forecast will appear here around the end of February

In summary: average or slightly above temperature and rainfall but with a likelihood of occasional brief cold, dry spells. These becoming more common as the winter progresses. Not as warm, wet or stormy as Winter 2013/14.

Webcam Gallery World Weather Month So Far Year So Far Met Office 5 Day Sea Temp UV Light Recording Data Humidity Calcs